Misunderstanding Risk

 Pretty much everyone has their own idea of what risk is.  Funny thing is that these ideas are usually wrong and often manipulated by media and popular culture.

I will sum this up early with a statement and reference.

"You are 5 times more likely to accidentally kill yourself while taking a selfie than to die by shark attack."

Read that again.

More People Die Taking Selfies Than by Shark Attacks (newsweek.com)

So why no "selfie week' on discovery channel?

I used to teach Risk Analysis (IST-301) for Penn State. I learned much from Dr Will McGill, who first developed the class.  I could never do as well as Will but I had my own approach.

First we have to agree that risk is the probability that something BAD will happen.  The bad thing could involve money, danger to people or the environment, or something else.  In Cybersecurity we look at the risk to the CIA of information. But the rules apply everywhere.

Next one has to look at what is at risk. Those are referred to as 'assets.'  So the risk is that something bad will happen to assets - people, property, secrets, etc.

This is where things like health care and insurance come in. I survived a devastating motorcycle accident in 2013.  I was dead for a minute.  Afterward all the bills came to about $160K.  Because I had insurance that was negotiated down to about $16K. Insurance paid all but $2K.

Mind you the risk of dying on a motorcycle is 1 in 112.  The risk of dying by firearm 1 in358, plane crash 1 in 8,015, poisonous creature one in 42,120, and shark? 1 in 3.7 million.  (these are approximate)

Your chances of dying from a plane crash, a shark attack or lightning strike | indy100 | indy100

We all take risks every day. Can't avoid it. But we learn ways to avoid or mitigate the effects of the risk. A risk with a tiny bad thing is no big deal. A risk with a big bad thing is important.

Next time I will introduce two more points of risk to give you nightmares - a comet/asteroid and a CME.