Misunderstanding Risk

 Pretty much everyone has their own idea of what risk is.  Funny thing is that these ideas are usually wrong and often manipulated by media and popular culture.

I will sum this up early with a statement and reference.

"You are 5 times more likely to accidentally kill yourself while taking a selfie than to die by shark attack."

Read that again.

More People Die Taking Selfies Than by Shark Attacks (newsweek.com)

So why no "selfie week' on discovery channel?

I used to teach Risk Analysis (IST-301) for Penn State. I learned much from Dr Will McGill, who first developed the class.  I could never do as well as Will but I had my own approach.

First we have to agree that risk is the probability that something BAD will happen.  The bad thing could involve money, danger to people or the environment, or something else.  In Cybersecurity we look at the risk to the CIA of information. But the rules apply everywhere.

Next one has to look at what is at risk. Those are referred to as 'assets.'  So the risk is that something bad will happen to assets - people, property, secrets, etc.

This is where things like health care and insurance come in. I survived a devastating motorcycle accident in 2013.  I was dead for a minute.  Afterward all the bills came to about $160K.  Because I had insurance that was negotiated down to about $16K. Insurance paid all but $2K.

Mind you the risk of dying on a motorcycle is 1 in 112.  The risk of dying by firearm 1 in358, plane crash 1 in 8,015, poisonous creature one in 42,120, and shark? 1 in 3.7 million.  (these are approximate)

Your chances of dying from a plane crash, a shark attack or lightning strike | indy100 | indy100

We all take risks every day. Can't avoid it. But we learn ways to avoid or mitigate the effects of the risk. A risk with a tiny bad thing is no big deal. A risk with a big bad thing is important.

Next time I will introduce two more points of risk to give you nightmares - a comet/asteroid and a CME.

Beware the post-disaster scams

 About 10 years ago I was interviewed by a talk show in London about scams following hurricane Katrina.  Turns out disasters are a ripe time for such scams, often aimed at elderly people.

So here is my sad, sad story.

Once I had cell service after Ian, I would check FB regularly to let my family and friends know that I am OK.  I got a friend request from a retired faculty member whom I barely knew back in the day.  I was initially suspicious (always am). I asked him a few questions to see if it was really him, but he found a way to avoid answering them.

He asked me if I had gotten my money from DHS. Scam warnings immediately went up, but he kept insisting that I trust him.  He then asked if he could have a DHS agent contact me.  I do not want to divulge this persons name since I am now sure it was a cloned acct.

However, I was soon contacted by a John Franklin, who claims to be a DHS agent.  He said I would get $150K in a Fedex box at 9:30 pm.  He wanted a lot of info from me, including a copy of my drivers license. I refused.  The only info i provided was info found on my FB anyway. Nothing private!

So then he contacted me at 9pm and said they needed $2k to complete delivery of my 150K - scam city!

So then I did what any citizen is supposed to do. I gathered documentation and first contacted DHS. Turns out they do have an agent John Franklin.  My bet is that his acct was spoofed also.  BANG! Now it is a Federal crime, impersonating a federal officer and a scam across state lines.

Here is Johns fake FB profile  (4) John Franklin | Facebook

DHS did not care! Email to John went without a reply. The web site at FBI for reporting things like this is impossible to figure out!  And NO email address for FBI. NONE! Zippo!

So I send the info to my local police.  Again no reply, although I cannot blame them since we are in the middle if Ians devastation zone.

So I have archived all information about this.  They honestly do not seem to care.  The scam is one thing but impersonating a federal agent in a scam....  wow. I had it all wrapped up as a present for them but oh well.

So bottom line. Try to be a good citizen but look out for yourself.  I have no doubt there are law enforcement people looking to break scams like this but good luck finding them.  I am very disappointed.

Getting online in a disaster area

 It has been almost 2 weeks now since Hurricane Ian passed right over our house. Luckily the house, shed, pets, vehicles and we, are OK.  The trees, fence, garden and birdcage are destroyed.  But hey, we were lucky!

The day of the Hurricane was surreal. We had bought new hurricane-proof bay windows, which I sat behind and watched it all go by. I did drink vodka, and listened to progressive rock music as I imagined the world crumbling around me. Suzi made a safe room where she, the pets and a radio sat.

The day after everything was in tatters. We had no water but we did have a pool for water to flush toilets. Luckily, we had bought about 8 cases of water over the preceding months.  We were also fortunate that the temps after Ian were in the 70s and low 80s so no need for air conditioning.

I expected that electricity and cable/wifi would be out for at least a few days.  I did not expect that cellular service would be down.  For four days we had no way to reach anyone to let them know we were safe.  Cell service came back in 4 days, electricity came back in 8 days. Cable/wifi are still dead.

Of course you need power with any electronics.  I was able to use my truck and an inverter to charge battery packs.  I also have a few solar-charging battery packs. More than enough to keep a cell phone running, or two in our case. I plan on getting more.

I do have 2 portable generators but had no luck getting either started. Neighbors and even the national guard tried, but nada. Lesson is to not wait until a disaster before making sure your generator works.

Now if you have unlimited data on your phone the magic starts.  Mobile tethering allows you to use your phone as a portable wi-fi hotspot.  Speed sux - about 2MB down and 3MB up last time I checked.  You ae limited on devices also but I have 2 computers on it now and so far no problem.

But be sure you have unlimited data or you may get a nasty surprise.

Now more magic.  If you have a smart TV, like my 85" Sony, you can get it on the hotspot and watch netflix or whatever.  Also, most TVs have a local antenna port. Get a $50 digital antenna from Wal Mart and you can watch local TV.  This and radio were our only info sources until cell came back.

One more little thing. We have a group here called CERT, Community Emergency Response Team. Given how cell was out, why not fall back on CB radios?  Pretty much every boomer has one in a box in their garage or shed.  With a tiny amount of prep these could be used for the CERT members to coordinate response.  I am planning to do a demo for the other CERT members.

Of course the problem is that coordination is needed early on. Almost nobody uses them besides truckers any longer.  New handhelds go for about $80. Battery powered.   Base satiations run the same price range but are not battery powered.

Also, demand a refund for the time any service, like cable, was down.  I expect this will become quite a kerfluffle.